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Global Justice Scenarios

Explore the Distributional Pathways and Climate Scenarios of the Global Justice Project. For more information read the Global Justice Report.

Countries / Regions

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Distributional Pathways:
The March Towards Equality and Sustainability (Sustainable Convergence Scenario)

Variable :
Metric :
Group :

Monthly GDP per Capita
(Sustainable Convergence Scenario)

Scenario Selection

Macro Scenario :
Energy Scenario :

Scenario : Polarized Confrontation + Fast Decarbonization

According to the Productivist Convergence scenario, all countries converge to 120k euros per capita by 2100. This reflects the same productivity trends as under Sustainable Convergence but with no reduction in work hours, no shift in the composition of consumption, and stable food and land-use patterns. The Fast Decarbonisation scenario is characterized by large phase-out of fossil fuels (below 20% of total energy demand of the world economy by 2050 and 0% by 2100), accompanied by the rapid deployment of low-carbon electricity generation. Warming reaches approximately 2.6°C by 2100, and emissions remain positive at century's end, meaning temperatures continue rising thereafter, likely reaching 2.9–3.0°C by 2200. Net zero is not achieved. We see this combination as unlikely: the political conditions that sustain rapid material growth tend to make it difficult to build the coalitions needed for fast decarbonisation. Importantly, continued material consumption growth also exerts pressure on other planetary boundaries beyond climate, which decarbonisation alone cannot address.

PC — Polarized Confrontation
FD — Fast Decarbonization
2.6°C by 2100 Above 2°C target

Scenario : Polarized Confrontation + Intermediate Decarbonization

According to the Productivist Convergence scenario, all countries converge to 120k euros per capita by 2100. This reflects the same productivity trends as under Sustainable Convergence but with no reduction in work hours, no shift in the composition of consumption, and stable food and land-use patterns. The Intermediate Decarbonisation scenario reflects current national pledges and commitments, with fossil fuels declining but remaining significant through 2100. Warming reaches approximately 4.2°C by 2100 and net zero is not reached. This combination corresponds to a world that succeeds in implementing announced climate commitments while maintaining economic growth.

PC — Polarized Confrontation
ID — Intermediate Decarbonization
4.2°C by 2100 Above 2°C target

Scenario : Polarized Confrontation + Slow Decarbonization

According to the Productivist Convergence scenario, all countries converge to 120k euros per capita by 2100. This reflects the same productivity trends as under Sustainable Convergence but with no reduction in work hours, no shift in the composition of consumption, and stable food and land-use patterns. The Slow Decarbonisation scenario reflects only currently implemented policies, with fossil fuels remaining dominant. Warming reaches approximately 4.9°C by 2100 and net zero is not achieved.

PC — Polarized Confrontation
SD — Slow Decarbonization
4.9°C by 2100 Above 2°C target

Scenario : Polarized Integration + Fast Decarbonization

According to the Persistent Inequality scenario, large income gaps between rich and poor countries persist through 2100, with per capita GDP ranging from around 28k euros in the poorest regions to over 200k euros in the richest. There is no shift in consumption, food and land-use patterns. The Fast Decarbonisation scenario is characterized by large phase-out of fossil fuels (below 20% of total energy demand of the world economy by 2050 and 0% by 2100), accompanied by the rapid deployment of low-carbon electricity generation. Warming reaches approximately 2.6°C by 2100, rising further thereafter, and net zero is not achieved. We see this combination as unlikely: the political conditions that sustain rapid material growth tend to make it difficult to build the coalitions needed for fast decarbonisation. Importantly, continued material consumption growth also exerts pressure on other planetary boundaries beyond climate, which decarbonisation alone cannot address.

PI — Polarized Integration
FD — Fast Decarbonization
2.6°C by 2100 Above 2°C target

Scenario : Polarized Integration + Intermediate Decarbonization

According to the Persistent Inequality scenario, large income gaps between rich and poor countries persist through 2100, with per capita GDP ranging from around 28k euros in the poorest regions to over 200k euros in the richest. There is no shift in consumption, food and land-use patterns. The Intermediate Decarbonisation scenario reflects current national pledges and commitments, with fossil fuels declining but remaining significant through 2100. Warming reaches approximately 4.1°C by 2100.

PI — Polarized Integration
ID — Intermediate Decarbonization
4.1°C by 2100 Above 2°C target

Scenario : Polarized Integration + Slow Decarbonization

According to the Persistent Inequality scenario, large income gaps between rich and poor countries persist through 2100, with per capita GDP ranging from around 28k euros in the poorest regions to over 200k euros in the richest. There is no shift in consumption, food and land-use patterns. The Slow Decarbonisation scenario reflects only currently implemented policies, with fossil fuels remaining dominant. Warming reaches approximately 4.8°C by 2100.

PI — Polarized Integration
SD — Slow Decarbonization
4.8°C by 2100 Above 2°C target

Scenario : Sustainable Convergence + Fast Decarbonization

According to the Sustainable Convergence scenario, all countries reach 60k euros per capita GDP by 2100, comparable to today's levels in the world's richest countries. This comes with a significant reduction in work hours to around 1,000 per year per worker, as well as a consumption shift from material to immaterial sectors, and a major change of food patterns and land-use. The Fast Decarbonisation scenario is characterized by large phase-out of fossil fuels (below 20% of total energy demand of the world economy by 2050 and 0% by 2100), accompanied by the rapid deployment of low-carbon electricity generation. Only the Sustainable Convergence scenario with Fast Decarbonisation achieves net zero emissions by 2100, allowing temperature rise to stabilize at around 1.8°C compared to pre-industrial levels.

SC — Sustainable Convergence
FD — Fast Decarbonization
1.8°C by 2100 Below 2°C target

Scenario : Sustainable Convergence + Intermediate Decarbonization

According to the Sustainable Convergence scenario, all countries reach 60k euros per capita GDP by 2100, comparable to today's levels in the world's richest countries. This comes with a significant reduction in work hours to around 1,000 per year per worker, as well as a consumption shift from material to immaterial sectors, and a major change of food patterns and land-use. The Intermediate Decarbonisation scenario reflects current national pledges and commitments, with fossil fuels declining but remaining significant through 2100. Despite the substantial emission reductions from changes in work hours, consumption, and food habits, this combination does not reach net zero, and results in approximately 2.7°C of warming by 2100.

SC — Sustainable Convergence
ID — Intermediate Decarbonization
2.7°C by 2100 Above 2°C target

Scenario : Sustainable Convergence + Slow Decarbonization

According to the Sustainable Convergence scenario, all countries reach 60k euros per capita GDP by 2100, comparable to today's levels in the world's richest countries. This comes with a significant reduction in work hours to around 1,000 per year per worker, as well as a consumption shift from material to immaterial sectors, and a major change of food patterns and land-use. The Slow Decarbonisation scenario reflects only currently implemented policies, with fossil fuels remaining dominant. Despite the large reductions in material consumption and land use, warming still reaches around 3.3°C by 2100 and net zero is not achieved.

SC — Sustainable Convergence
SD — Slow Decarbonization
3.3°C by 2100 Above 2°C target

Global Temperature - Sustainability requires Sufficiency and Fast Decarbonization

GDP per Capita by Region —